Gemdale Group (600383) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Welcome to the peak of sales and completion

Gemdale Group (600383) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Welcome to the peak of sales and completion
Core Ideas Gold Land, the peak of sales and completion, is worth investing in.Maintain “Buy” investment rating. The company’s performance has grown steadily and rapidly.The company’s operating income in 2018 was US $ 50.7 billion, an increase of 35% year-on-year; net profit attributable to mothers was US $ 8.1 billion, an increase of 18%, including non-net profit of 7 billion yuan.The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first quarter of 201915.0 million yuan, an increase of 37% in ten years. New construction started in 2018, and the value of goods in 2019 is abundant, and the regional structure is on the first and second tiers. It is expected to replace deterministic certainty.In 2018, the company reached 15.55 million square meters, an increase of 79% (based on the average sales price in 2018, equivalent to 287.6 billion goods value.Taking into account that there is still a value for sale, it is expected that the saleable resources will be higher in 2019).As of the end of 2018, among the company’s 44 million land reserves, 83% were in first- and second-tier cities.This implies that the layout of the company’s saleable areas in 2019 is skewed to the first and second tiers, which is highly deterministic. The soil storage in a single city is relatively low, and there is still room for future urban growth.The company is located in 50 cities, with a sales value of 162.3 billion U.S. dollars, a single city soil storage area of 880,000 square meters, and an annual budget of 3.2 billion.Ranking Vanke, Poly and other industry leaders, the company’s single city market share still has significant room for growth.In 2018, the company obtained 10.72 million flat land reserves with a total land investment of 1,000 trillion. This is the second consecutive year that the company’s total land investment exceeded 1,000 trillion, which greatly eased the dilemma of insufficient land reserves around 2016. Good credit and superior cost of capital.The company’s expected average cost of debt financing at the end of 20184.83%, compared with 4 at the end of 2017.The level of 56% has risen slightly, but it is still at the level of peers.The company’s net interest rate is 57.4%, also at a low level. Gemdale’s profitability has improved, and customer satisfaction and brand image are among the best in the industry.Gemdale Property’s contract management area in 2018 exceeded 1.500 million square meters, revenue 21.600 million, an annual increase of 5.1%, gross profit margin 9.5%, an increase from earlier 2017, and also reached a pre-set high (and the proportion with independent listed property management companies may still occur).In our view, this means that the company is gradually beginning to understand the profitability of the property management sector and no longer sees 夜来香体验网 it as a pure cost center.Gemdale’s customer satisfaction and brand image are at the forefront of the industry, and we look forward to its value being further developed and reflected. Risk Warning: Risk of contraction and tightening of the real estate market.The risk that the company’s project equity ratio is too low. Gold Land at the peak of sales and completion is worth the investment.The value of the company is abundant in 2019, and it has exceeded 30% before the first quarter.At the same time, the company will usher in a peak of completion with a planned completion area of 8.54 million square meters, an increase of 27% over 2018.Settlement revenue is expected to grow in sync. We raise the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20 to 2.07/2.28 yuan / share (previous forecast 1).73/1.86 yuan / share), plus EPS forecast 2 in 2021.49 yuan / share, giving the company 9 times PE in 2019, 18.Target price of 63 yuan / share, maintain investment rating of “Buy”.