Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Southeast Asia drags outbound tourism performance and diversified business growth
Performance summary: 2019H1 achieved operating income of 57.
200 million, a decrease of 1 every year.
1%; net profit attributable to mother 1.
1 ‰, a decrease of 20 per year.
4%; deduct non-attributed profit1.
1 ‰, a decrease of 6 per year.
Among them, Q2 single quarter revenue reached 32.
900 million, a decrease of one year.
3%; net profit attributable to mother is 4,524.
50,000 yuan, a decrease of 37 per year.
6%; 4478 deducted non-attributed profit.
90,000 yuan, a 20% reduction in one year.
The impact of the downturn in the Southeast Asian market, etc., put the overall pressure on outbound travel business and the steady growth of integrated marketing business.
Revenue from outbound travel business in H1 201951.
70,000 yuan (-3% compared to the same period last year).
1) Wholesale and retail sales: Outbound tourism wholesale business income 42.
300 million (-4% year-on-year.
7%), outbound tourism retail business income 9.
40,000 yuan (+4 compared with the same period last year).
The outbound tourism wholesale business in Central and Southwest China has achieved rapid growth through rich product types, and Zhuyuan International Travel has achieved 21 in revenue.
900 million (yoy-8%); in terms of outbound travel retail, the number of direct and partner stores of the company increased to 543, and the expansion of regional stores effectively increased the company’s market share.
2) From the perspective of destinations: The company’s European destinations increased revenue by 10% + by maintaining a high full rate.
As the Southeast Asian market has not yet fully recovered and under the high base of 2018H, the revenue of the Asian market has decreased by 10% +.
In addition, the American market and the Australian market were affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade war and the growth of free travel, and the revenue scale decreased.
3) Revenue from integrated marketing business 3.
600 million (yoy + 10%), Zhongxin Borui continued to improve its integrated marketing service capabilities and hosted many national or international conferences.
The growth of fragmented services such as domestic travel and destinations is bright, forming a new driver of performance growth.
Domestic tourism and single product business realized operating income1.
600 million (+52 year-on-year.
3%), of which domestic tourism has increased significantly by 70%.
As the company’s third-party online travel platform conducts more resources, manpower investment, overseas air tickets, personal travel visas, destination coupons, attractions tickets and other destination fragmentation products revenue will continue to increase.
Revenue from other industries was 2,193.
70,000 yuan (+176 compared with the same period last year).
4%), study tour, resettlement industry, currency exchange and other preliminary layout business scales gradually changed. Among them, the income of the resettlement industry and the currency exchange business performed well, with growth rates exceeding 600% and 200%, respectively, becoming new highlights and growth of the company’s business.point.
The gross profit margin level is relatively stable, and the increase in expense ratio dragged down the profit level slightly.1) In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of 2019H outbound wholesale / retail / integrated marketing is 8 respectively.
5% (0% YoY.
1pp) / 16.
3% (-1pp y / y) / 10.
4% (+ 1% year-on-year.
3pp), the overall gross profit margin increased slightly by 0.
3pp to 10.
9%; 2) In terms of expenses, the increase in loan interest expenses and the decrease in exchange gains resulted in an increase in the financial expense ratio of 0.
2pp to 0.
4%, meanwhile, the sales expense ratio / administrative expense ratio increase to 6 each year.
9% (+0 year-on-year.
3pp) / 1.
3% (+0 compared to the same period last year).
1pp), the overall three rates increased by 0.
6pp to 8.
7%, the increase in expense ratio dragged down the overall net net ratio by a small margin of 0.
6pp to 2%.
The outbound tourism leader has expanded to “Tourism +”, diversified the outbound tourism ecological chain, and looks forward to 深圳spa会所 the warming of the outbound tourism industry.
1) As one of the largest outbound tourism wholesalers in the country, the company adheres to the development path from tourism to travel. The business has expanded from outbound tourism to “tourism +” services, and gradually moved to study abroad, immigration, real estate, tourism finance, health and medical tourismComprehensive service extension.
In terms of overseas resources, the company invests in ground resources in multiple destinations, participates in target operations in depth, and improves operational capabilities and service levels. The entire ecological chain layout is gradually taking shape, and profitability is expected to gradually improve.
2) In 2019H, the number of Chinese outbound tourists is expected to be about 81.29 million (+ 14% year-on-year), of which 南宁桑拿 the number of people going to Europe will reach 3 million (+ 7% year-on-year).
4%); 5.65 million people went to Thailand (yoy-4.
7%), is expected to reach 11-12 million, the second half of the growth rate is expected to turn from negative to positive, the company as the industry leader is expected to take the lead to benefit from the industry’s warming dividends.
Profit forecast and rating.
The impact of Southeast Asia has been eliminated. Zhongxin is a leader in the wholesale and retail industry in the outbound tourism industry. The inferior competitors in the industry are well formed. The leader’s medium and long-term growth can be expected. It is estimated that 2019-2021 earnings per share will be zero.
29 yuan, 0.
35 yuan, 0.
41 yuan, corresponding to PE 18X, 15X, 13X, maintaining the “buy” level.
Risk reminders: Macroeconomic or continuous downturn risks; new business advances or falls short of expectations; exchange rate or continuous fluctuation risks.